第2次ベビーブーム世代（1971～1974年生まれ）の年金は本当に減るのか？
1. 日本の年金制度の基本構造
日本の公的年金制度は「賦課方式」を採用しており、現役世代が納める保険料で
高齢者の年金を支える仕組みです。このため、少子高齢化が進むと、年金財源の確
保が難しくなります。
2. 人口推移と第2次ベビーブーム世代の状況
出生数の推移
第2次ベビーブーム世代（1971～1974年生まれ）は年間約200万人が生まれて
おり、比較的大きな世代。 しかし、それ以降の出生数は減少し続け、2023年
の出生数は約72万人と激減。
つまり、この世代が年金を受給する2040年代には、支え手となる現役世代が
大幅に減少。
3. 予想される年金水準の低下
2024年度の年金改定
マクロ経済スライド（物価や賃金の伸びに応じて年金給付を抑制する仕組み）
が適用され、年金水準は徐々に減少。
2025年の財政検証（5年ごとの公的年金の財政見直し）
現在の見通しでは、将来的に現役世代の手取り収入に対する年金の給付割合
（所得代替率）は50％を下回る可能性がある。
具体的には、第2次ベビーブーム世代の年金受給額は現役時代の収入の40～45
％程度になる可能性
年金支給開始年齢の引き上げ
65歳から段階的に68歳～70歳へ引き上げられる可能性も議論されている。
4. 現実的な対策はあるのか？
政府の対応策
社会保険料の引き上げ：すでに保険料率は上限近く（厚生年金18.3％）に達
しているため、大幅な引き上げは困難。
消費税の増税：年金財源の補填として検討される可能性がある（10％→15％
以上？）。
年金のさらなる抑制：給付額の引き下げや支給開始年齢の遅延が現実的な選択
肢に。
◆個人ができる対策
厚生年金加入を継続（可能なら長く働くことで受給額を増やす）。
iDeCoやNISAを活用して自助努力で老後資金を確保。
繰り下げ受給（70歳まで繰り下げると受給額が42％増）。
第2次ベビーブーム世代の年金額は、現在の高齢者より確実に減る可能性が高い。
特に、「支給額の実質的な減少」「支給開始年齢の引き上げ」の両方が進む可能
性が高いため、早めの資産形成が重要になります。
年齢的にみたら54歳～57歳ですがら自己努力を進めていける時代です。
これまで少子化が進んだら年金制度が破綻してしまう可能性も見えてきますね。
Will the pensions of the second baby boom generation (born between 1971 and 1974) really be reduced?
1. Basic structure of the Japanese pension system
Japan's public pension system is based on a pay-as-you-go system, where the pensions of the elderly are supported by insurance premiums paid by the working generation. For this reason, as the birthrate declines and the population ages, it will become more difficult to secure pension funds.
2. Population trends and the situation of the second baby boom generation
Changes in birth numbers
The second baby boom generation (born between 1971 and 1974) is a relatively large generation, with approximately 2 million people born each year. However, the number of births has continued to decline since then, and in 2023 the number of births is expected to drop sharply to approximately 720,000.
In other words, by the 2040s, when this generation will start receiving their pensions, the working generation that will support them will have drastically decreased.
３. Expected decline in pension levels
Pension revision in 2024
The macroeconomic slide (a mechanism for suppressing pension benefits in line with price and wage growth) will be applied, gradually reducing pension levels.
Financial review in 2025 (review of public pension finances every five years)
Currently, the ratio of pension payments to the take-home income of the working generation (income replacement rate) may fall below 50% in the future.
Specifically, the pension amount received by the second baby boom generation may be about 40-45% of the income during their working years.
Raising the pension payment age
There is also discussion of the possibility of gradually raising the pension payment age from 65 to 68-70.
4. Are there any realistic measures?
Government response
Raising social insurance premiums: As the premium rate has already reached close to the upper limit (18.3% for employees' pension insurance), a significant increase is difficult.
Increasing the consumption tax: This may be considered as a way to supplement pension resources (10% → 15%or more?).
Further suppression of pensions: Reducing the amount of benefits and delaying the age at which benefits begin are realistic options.
Measures that individuals can take
Continue enrollment in the Employees' Pension Insurance (if possible, work longer to increase the amount of benefits you receive).
Use iDeCo or NISA to secure funds for retirement through self-help efforts.
Defer receiving benefits (postponing until age 70 increases benefits by 42%).
The pension amount of the second baby boom generation is likely to be lower than that of current elderly people.
In particular, since there is a high possibility that both "effective reductions in benefits" and "raising the age at which benefits begin" will progress, it is important to build assets early.
In terms of age, you are between 54 and 57 years old, so it is an era in which you can make efforts on your own.
If the declining birthrate continues, it is possible that the pension system will collapse.
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